The ScaleUp | Catching Rays in the Seattle Mist
Transforming solar power from rigid panels to flexible, modular sheets will accelerate adoption across industries
Welcome to The ScaleUp, our series showcasing innovations from research labs, and how we’d go about building an impactful, scaleable, and commercially successful business around the technology.
We start our journey in Washington State, best known as the location of Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, and Costco. Washington State first took off during the Industrial Revolution due to its abundant coal reserves and forests, transformed during the Second World War with Boeing building B-17 bombers and other weapons, and has continued to reinvent itself through many industries from medical devices, to artificial intelligence, to commercial space exploration. To support these industries Washington State has great engineering and technology higher education programs, including those at University of Washington.
In today’s post we'll be diving into the Hillhouse Research Group. Hugh Hillhouse is professor of Chemical Engineering at University of Washington. His group focuses on the intersection of engineering, chemistry, and physics to architect nanomaterials for high-efficiency, low-cost photoelectrochemical devices. The Hillhouse Research Group has published a number of articles on hybrid perovskites, largely seen as the next big advancement in solar technology, to understand the elements, structure, and coatings to maximize efficiency and output while minimizing material decay. Most recently the group has published work discussing how applied coatings can create more efficient energy capture while solving several inherent structural issues as well as how multi-junction cells have enabled laboratories to make the next jump in energy capture. As the effectiveness of these photovoltaic arrays increases, it is time to start exploring how to commercialize and scale. We’ll be looking at the work of Ian Braly and Hugh Hillhouse et al. On how applied coatings are vital to the next generation of perovskite-based arrays.
Background & Problem
For a little history, photovoltaic arrays were first brought to market in the 1960s by two primary stakeholder groups: NASA and energy companies, such as ExxonMobil. Due to the application and impetus neither stakeholder was sensitive to cost or ease of production. NASA was focused on maximizing energy capture in space while ExxonMobil viewed solar as an emerging technology that needed consideration and study for when it reached market adoption in the early 2000s. Their work was rooted in silicon (predominantly crystalline silicon) technology, which while highly efficient is difficult and expensive to manufacture and intolerant of any material impurities or faults. Fast forward to today and instead we need a solar solution that is adaptable, scalable, cost effective, and durable.
Enter perovskites.
Perovskites are widely seen as the next great advancement in solar cells, replacing its silicon-based counterparts, due to its easier manufacturing process, lower cost, and greater flexibility. Perovskites encompass any material that has a crystalline structure with the chemical formula ABX3 where A and B are cations and X is an anion. One MIT researcher referred to perovskites as a “choose your own adventure material” due to their wide range of applications; for example depending on the building blocks perovskite arrays can be tuned to match the sun’s spectrum.
There are two primary issues with perovskite panels. The first is efficiency loss due to non-radiative recombination. The second is perovskites panels are sensitive to the elements, decaying rapidly when exposed to moisture, heat, cold, and UV rays. All of which are suboptimal considering the intended use case. For this reason, efforts to create a scalable perovskite array have focused on various coating layers to the material, which allows for the surface of the panel to be chemically inert and therefore less sensitive to changing weather conditions, highly flexible in order to wrap around new form factors (the mythical self-powering car), and lower or eliminate the use of lead, which is a key industrial ingredient in current applications.
Business & Technology
We see the possibility for a multi-billion dollar enterprise based on Braly and Hillhouse’s work, following several distinct commercialization tracks, and with the following dependencies. Our company, “Pero” needs to first demonstrate technological viability. This is done via a perovskite photovoltaic array delivering 90% performance compared to current industry-standard crystalline silicon panels with a demonstrated usable life of 15 years.
People
Pero can be built by a team of……;
Founder / CEO. Given the necessity for cohesive narratives around perovskite panels, the ability to consult on outsourced manufacturing best practices, and credibility with large hard-materials companies, one of the lead authors of the original paper is best suited for this role.
COO with expertise in supply chain management, sourcing of scientific equipment (preferably used), and operational efficiency.
Hard science team of three chemical, material science, or electrical engineers with strong chemistry and laboratory backgrounds, experience in pilot labs or small batch operations, and strong analytical skills.
Two business development leads; one with connections and expertise in public utilities and state-government purchasing processes and a second with a background in enterprise technology sales and bringing startups to market.
Products
There are three initial products
A 65x39 inch panel, which is the approximate size of existing panels added to residential properties.
A 500 Watt array designed to be placed atop a school bus, mail truck, or other heavy industrial equipment.
Flexible arrays, in a wrap-paint form factor and mounted on a car or truck.
GTM and Commercialization
Pero is a capital-intensive business, requiring extensive manufacturing facilities, dedicated equipment, and the ability to tap into existing distribution channels given the delicacy of photovoltaic panels in transport. For this reason, early commercialization efforts follow three tracks, with the goal of reaching late-POC levels of scale.
Second-order commercialization is based on licensing the technology to scaled manufacturers, while maintaining in-house production on a small number of form-factors.
The initial commercialization vectors are;
Government; Flexible Pero arrays are placed on school buses, mail trucks, garbage vehicles, and any other government-owned transport that returns to a hub nightly. Pero can explore partnerships with makers of next-gen lithium-ion batteries to create light, inconspicuous systems that serve to reduce the vehicle’s energy use, and can serve as a grid backup in case of sustained power outages.
As weather systems intensify and the power grid continues to age, state-level politicians have powerful incentives to participate in programs that reduce disruption for constituents, and appease environmental advocacy groups. Long-term government contracts and public/private partnerships provide stability in the early stages of company launch.
Heavy industry; In Washington, where we’re based, reducing the environmental impact of forestry is a continuous public interest, as is reducing load on the grid in the face of hotter summers, colder winters, and aging transmission equipment. The second commercialization vector involves selling efficient Pero photovoltaic arrays to logging, construction, and the trades. Each array can be mounted onto trucks and any heavy equipment, transforming these machines into mobile charging stations for electric hand tools, and reducing grid demand during the hottest parts of the day when pricing is at a premium.
Consumer; Technological development of the first two GTM motions, both of which are high-dollar, long lead-time verticals, provides Pero the funding to follow a typical tech-development curve and eventually bring the product to the masses. This includes standard 65x39 residential panels, mobile charging stations for phones and camping, and linked arrays that can be connected to a Tesla powerwall or similar products.
Partnerships; Pero’s ultimate commercial potential will come through licensing its technology to the world’s largest manufacturers. We see car companies (regenerative batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles), makers of construction equipment (Caterpillar, JonDeere, etc), commercial and residential paint makers (Sherwin Williams), as logical fits.
Funding
In 2021, the latest year for which data is available, climate-focused companies raised $40bn of venture capital financing across 600 transactions, for an average of $66m per raise. Pero will require more, as an analysis of climate companies producing hard goods reveals that average financing rounds are ~50% larger due to elevated real estate costs on lab space, hard-to-procure equipment, and long lead times to market. Assuming Pero follows the outlined path of lean in-house teams and licensing technology to other makers, financing is most easily raised from the Market Development Fund budgets of potential manufacturing partners, as well as the in-house venture capital arms that have become ubiquitous in auto companies over the past decade.
Challenges
As with any company dependent on new technology, the primary risk in Pero is delivery of a functioning, durable perovskite panel from nominal initial funding. Assuming success here, the vast market demand for lower-cost photovoltaic arrays will create significant market pull, and make further challenges into those of operational excellence and execution. By following the proven playbooks of other hard-tech companies driving commercialization through larger partners, we see this as a significant market opportunity for a group of motivated technologists.
As always, Coral Carbon would be excited to connect Innovators with the v1 team to make this company happen.